What’s New
The number of Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) has increased by about 300 in just over a year, the Pentagon revealed in its report last week. They are capable of striking United States military bases in Japan during a potential conflict over Taiwan.
Why It Matters
Under a U.S. defense concept known as the first island chain, Japan forms a north-south blockade with Taiwan, a self-governing island that has claimed by China as its territory, and the Philippines, seeking to contain the Chinese military in the Western Pacific Ocean.
The U.S. is required by law to maintain its capacity to resist resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize “the security or the social or economic system of Taiwan.”
The tensions between China and Taiwan have turned Japan’s southwestern islands, located between the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea, into the front-line, causing concern in Tokyo as the majority of Japan-based U.S. forces are deployed on these remote islands.
What To Know
The U.S. military estimated China has 300 launchers and 1,300 missiles for its MRBM force, a weapon system that has a range of 1,000 kilometers to 3,000 kilometers (621 miles to 1,864 miles), covering the entire first island chain, according to a map attached to the report.
While the number of launchers remains unchanged, the number of missiles, including the DF-21, as well as the DF-17, which is armed with a hypersonic glide vehicle that travels greater than five times the speed of sound, has increased from 1,000 in last year’s estimate.
The expansion in MRBM numbers is likely due to continued production of the DF-17, which allows China to strike targets covered by missile defenses, Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA Corporation (Center for Naval Analyses),
The Pentagon said the DF-17 is primarily used for striking foreign military bases in the Western Pacific Ocean by evading adversary radars and ballistic missile defenses. Besides that, it and the DF-21 are capable of attacking ships like aircraft carriers in the region.
Aircraft carriers and military bases in Japan are critical to America’s power projection in the region, said Masashi Murano. “If these were to become unusable, the PLA [People’s Liberation Army of China]’s operational environment would improve significantly,” the senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair said
It is highly likely that the Chinese military would attack Japan’s bases with its MRBMs during a potential Taiwan conflict between Beijing and Washington, Murano said. “Even if it is directed at U.S. bases in Japan, Japan will regard it as an armed attack situation on its own country, so there is no point in distinguishing between Japanese bases and U.S. bases.”
